#MSBLSunday411 – Football: will we or won’t we?

The days are counting down to September, and the biggest question left about a return to normalcy for sports is what will happen with football. Obviously, this is a two-part question as the NFL and College football both have to make the decision and both have faced their own unique challenges. As of today, neither organization has made a firm commitment to return, but that doesn't mean that there hasn't been news potentially pointing in the direction of what they expect.

The NFL has made it clear that it won’t be attempting to pursue a “bubble” approach like the other leagues. In late July, the NFL and the NFL Players Association also announced an agreement to eliminate all pre-season games and a commitment to testing players every day for two weeks and then every other day as long as the COVID positive rate is below 5%. In a league first, the Arizona Cardinals informed season ticket holders the following via e-mail:

“…As for the regular season, it is not clear at this point how many spectators – if any - will be permitted to attend Cardinals home games in 2020. As such, all previous season ticket sales have been voided. All credits currently remain on account."

The e-mail statement went on to say that season ticket holders will be among the first to be able to purchase tickets for home games if fans are allowed inside State Farm Stadium. This follows a similar plan announced by the University of Michigan on July 15th in anticipation of a reduced capacity for Michigan Stadium.

College Football's fate, however, is much murkier. Despite no formal decision by any of the Football Bowl Subdivision conferences on IF they are going to play football, most (if not all) have announced a decision onlyto play conference games this season (as previously discussed in this blog.) While a majority of conferences in Division III and II and the NAIA have announced at least a delay in “higher risk” sports (soccer, football, volleyball.)

The Pac-12 finally announced its revised football schedule on Friday, which will see the season start on Saturday, September 26th, with the championship scheduled for the 18th or 19th of December. Two bye-weeks have been built into the schedule to allow for games to be rescheduled due to possible travel restrictions and/or virus outbreaks.

As I mentioned in a blog post from earlier this month “Pandemic Dominos,” the economic impact from NOT having college football is a fate that most are hoping to avoid as it could bring additional devastation to smaller communities that rely on football game days to survive their fiscal year and the smaller athletic departments that rely on the revenue associated with fans in attendance. What does appear to be one “ray of hope” in this situation was the following survey conducted by Teamworks:

Based on these results, a majority of college administrators feel that the season will happen; it's just a question of how many fans will be allowed to attend the game. This will present an interesting situation in a conference like the Pac-12 which includes states in very different circumstances related to COVID-19.

With these questions still lingering, we've also started to hear discussion about what could happen with the bowl schedule, as discussed in a CBS sports article yesterday. The report points out that bowls will have the ability to observe an entire season (assuming there is one) to put in place the best safety protocols; however, we will undoubtedly see a contraction of the current schedule of 41 games with one bowl (The Redbox Bowl) already announcing it won’t be played in 2020 even if it can be.

Bowl games are operated as non-profits, so it allows them to be flexible if the games need to be moved to the spring season. However, because of their status, their budgets are built on three key revenue streams: ticket sales, sponsorships, and TV Rights fees. Even before the pandemic, the average (overall) bowl attendance had been decreasing, and most bowls are facing potentially significant restrictions on their available ticket inventory. Besides the cost of executing and hosting the game, the remaining cash is typically paid out to schools to defray their travel costs to the site; leaving many questions to be resolved by the various bowl committees over the coming months.

So, while we will eventually get clarity on the college football season, it seems the next question will be if some of our favorite college football end-of-season traditions like the Rose Bowl or Fiesta Bowl will happen?

"I imagine the top bowls will want to try and still do it, but you've got to wonder if the schools will be willing to play. You made it through the regular season, and now you're going to add another event that adds complexity and cost," 

- Notre Dame Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick in a statement to the Associated Press